The Vegvísir (Icelandic for “wayfinder”) is a magical stave from Icelandic folklore, often called the “Viking Compass,” designed to help its bearer find their way through storms or unknown territory, guiding them physically and spiritually.
I’d say that the closing year was really a rollercoaster due to tariffs concerns, interest rates, wars and geo-political issues.
Nevertheless, we wanted to close the experiments we were planning last year to combine a portfolio with 1/N allocation strategy and pick ten underlying by using a combined ML and mean variance techiques.
The final gain was 31% without recapitalization and a simple investment strategy, buy and hold for one year. In these days we are repeating the underlying selection for 2026 and get back with results in 12 months time, that is neither short nor long term.
This is compared with MVP OOS analysis, same period (violet curve) that lead to about 30% gain with deeper drawdowns. The other defect of the strategy is that it assumes the underlying will behave in the future as they did in the past and so it has no forecasting component in it, that, for example, would have led to losses in 2022.
Have a nice and healthy 2026!